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Climate Change, Population Immunity, and Hyperendemicity in the Transmission Threshold of Dengue
http://hdl.handle.net/10069/31003
http://hdl.handle.net/10069/31003f5697049-15cd-445f-afb3-5d929f5d4485
名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
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PLoS7_48258.pdf (264.3 kB)
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Item type | 学術雑誌論文 / Journal Article(1) | |||||
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公開日 | 2013-03-15 | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
タイトル | Climate Change, Population Immunity, and Hyperendemicity in the Transmission Threshold of Dengue | |||||
言語 | ||||||
言語 | eng | |||||
資源タイプ | ||||||
資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||
資源タイプ | journal article | |||||
著者 |
Oki, Mika
× Oki, Mika× Yamamoto, Taro |
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抄録 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
内容記述 | Background: It has been suggested that the probability of dengue epidemics could increase because of climate change. The probability of epidemics is most commonly evaluated by the basic reproductive number (R 0), and in mosquito-borne diseases, mosquito density (the number of female mosquitoes per person [MPP]) is the critical determinant of the R 0 value. In dengue-endemic areas, 4 different serotypes of dengue virus coexist-a state known as hyperendemicity-and a certain proportion of the population is immune to one or more of these serotypes. Nevertheless, these factors are not included in the calculation of R 0. We aimed to investigate the effects of temperature change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity on the threshold MPP that triggers an epidemic. Methods and Findings: We designed a mathematical model of dengue transmission dynamics. An epidemic was defined as a 10% increase in seroprevalence in a year, and the MPP that triggered an epidemic was defined as the threshold MPP. Simulations were conducted in Singapore based on the recorded temperatures from 1980 to 2009 The threshold MPP was estimated with the effect of (1) temperature only; (2) temperature and fluctuation of population immunity; and (3) temperature, fluctuation of immunity, and hyperendemicity. When only the effect of temperature was considered, the threshold MPP was estimated to be 0.53 in the 1980s and 0.46 in the 2000s, a decrease of 13.2%. When the fluctuation of population immunity and hyperendemicity were considered in the model, the threshold MPP decreased by 38.7%, from 0.93 to 0.57, from the 1980s to the 2000s. Conclusions: The threshold MPP was underestimated if population immunity was not considered and overestimated if hyperendemicity was not included in the simulations. In addition to temperature, these factors are particularly important when quantifying the threshold MPP for the purpose of setting goals for vector control in dengue-endemic areas. | |||||
書誌情報 |
PLoS ONE 巻 7, 号 10, p. e48258, 発行日 2012-10-29 |
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出版者 | ||||||
出版者 | Public Library of Science | |||||
EISSN | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||
収録物識別子 | 19326203 | |||||
DOI | ||||||
関連タイプ | isIdenticalTo | |||||
識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||
関連識別子 | 10.1371/journal.pone.0048258 | |||||
権利 | ||||||
権利情報 | © 2012 Oki, Yamamoto. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. | |||||
著者版フラグ | ||||||
出版タイプ | VoR | |||||
出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 | |||||
引用 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | PLoS ONE, 7(10), e48258; 2012 |