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Regime shifts and heterogeneous trends in malaria time series from Western Kenya Highlands
http://hdl.handle.net/10069/27792
http://hdl.handle.net/10069/27792aa5978e0-7b59-454d-a8da-22a8191d440d
名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
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Par139_14.pdf (746.9 kB)
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Item type | 学術雑誌論文 / Journal Article(1) | |||||
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公開日 | 2012-02-24 | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
タイトル | Regime shifts and heterogeneous trends in malaria time series from Western Kenya Highlands | |||||
言語 | ||||||
言語 | eng | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | breakpoint | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | climate change | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Kapsabet | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Kendu Bay | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Kericho | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Kisii | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Kisumu | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Maseno | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Plasmodium | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | seasonal autoregressive | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | time series | |||||
資源タイプ | ||||||
資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||
資源タイプ | journal article | |||||
著者 |
Chaves, Luis Fernando
× Chaves, Luis Fernando× Hashizume, Masahiro× Satake, Akiko× Minakawa, Noboru |
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抄録 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
内容記述 | Large malaria epidemics in the East African highlands during the mid and late 1990s kindled a stream of research on the role that global warming might have on malaria transmission. Most of the inferences using temporal information have been derived from a malaria incidence time series from Kericho. Here, we report a detailed analysis of 5 monthly time series, between 15 and 41 years long, from West Kenya encompassing an altitudinal gradient along Lake Victoria basin. We found decreasing, but heterogeneous, malaria trends since the late 1980s at low altitudes (<1600 m), and the early 2000s at high altitudes (>1600 m). Regime shifts were present in 3 of the series and were synchronous in the 2 time series from high altitudes. At low altitude, regime shifts were associated with a shift from increasing to decreasing malaria transmission, as well as a decrease in variability. At higher altitudes, regime shifts reflected an increase in malaria transmission variability. The heterogeneity in malaria trends probably reflects the multitude of factors that can drive malaria transmission and highlights the need for both spatially and temporally fine-grained data to make sound inferences about the impacts of climate change and control/elimination interventions on malaria transmission. | |||||
書誌情報 |
Parasitology 巻 139, 号 01, p. 14-25, 発行日 2012-01 |
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出版者 | ||||||
出版者 | Cambridge University Press | |||||
ISSN | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||
収録物識別子 | 00311820 | |||||
EISSN | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||
収録物識別子 | 14698161 | |||||
書誌レコードID | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | NCID | |||||
収録物識別子 | AA12307753 | |||||
DOI | ||||||
関連タイプ | isIdenticalTo | |||||
識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||
関連識別子 | 10.1017/S0031182011001685 | |||||
権利 | ||||||
権利情報 | ©Cambridge University Press 2011. The online version of this article is published within an Open Access environment subject to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike licence <http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/>. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use.doi:10.1017/S0031182011001685 | |||||
著者版フラグ | ||||||
出版タイプ | VoR | |||||
出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 | |||||
引用 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | Parasitology, 139(1), pp.14-25; 2012 |