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We aimed to project global temperature-attributable enteric infection mortality under various future scenarios of sociodemographic development and climate change.\nMethods: In this modelling study, we generated global projections in two stages. First, we forecasted baseline mortality from ten enteropathogens (non-typhoidal salmonella, Shigella, Campylobacter, cholera, enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, enterotoxigenic E coli, typhoid, rotavirus, norovirus, and Cryptosporidium) under several future sociodemographic development and health investment scenarios (ie, pessimistic, intermediate, and optimistic). 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Global projections of temperature-attributable mortality due to enteric infections: a modelling study
http://hdl.handle.net/10069/00041018
http://hdl.handle.net/10069/000410184be85ee2-04ae-4269-8ab4-110e81ac0715
名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
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LPH5_e436.pdf (1.3 MB)
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Item type | 学術雑誌論文 / Journal Article(1) | |||||
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公開日 | 2021-11-12 | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
タイトル | Global projections of temperature-attributable mortality due to enteric infections: a modelling study | |||||
言語 | ||||||
言語 | eng | |||||
資源タイプ | ||||||
資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||
資源タイプ | journal article | |||||
著者 |
Chua, Paul L C
× Chua, Paul L C× Huber, Veronika× Ng, Chris Fook Sheng× Seposo, Xerxes T× Madaniyazi, Lina× Hales, Simon× Woodward, Alistair× Hashizume, Masahiro |
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抄録 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
内容記述 | Background: Mortality due to enteric infections is projected to increase because of global warming; however, the different temperature sensitivities of major enteric pathogens have not yet been considered in projections on a global scale. We aimed to project global temperature-attributable enteric infection mortality under various future scenarios of sociodemographic development and climate change. Methods: In this modelling study, we generated global projections in two stages. First, we forecasted baseline mortality from ten enteropathogens (non-typhoidal salmonella, Shigella, Campylobacter, cholera, enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, enterotoxigenic E coli, typhoid, rotavirus, norovirus, and Cryptosporidium) under several future sociodemographic development and health investment scenarios (ie, pessimistic, intermediate, and optimistic). We then estimated the mortality change from baseline attributable to global warming using the product of projected annual temperature anomalies and pathogen-specific temperature sensitivities. Findings: We estimated that in the period 2080–95, the global mean number of temperature-attributable deaths due to enteric infections could be as low as 6599 (95% empirical CI 5441–7757) under the optimistic sociodemographic development and climate change scenario, or as high as 83 888 (67 760–100 015) under the pessimistic scenario. Most of the projected temperature-attributable deaths were from shigellosis, cryptosporidiosis, and typhoid fever in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Considerable reductions in the number of attributable deaths were from viral infections, such as rotaviral and noroviral enteritis, which resulted in net reductions in attributable enteric infection mortality under optimistic scenarios for Latin America and the Caribbean and East Asia and the Pacific. Interpretation: Temperature-attributable mortality could increase under warmer climate and unfavourable sociodemographic conditions. Mitigation policies for limiting global warming and sociodemographic development policies for low-income and middle-income countries might help reduce mortality from enteric infections in the future. Funding: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Japan Science and Technology Agency, and Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness. |
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書誌情報 |
The Lancet Planetary Health 巻 5, 号 7, p. e436-e445, 発行日 2021-07-07 |
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出版者 | ||||||
出版者 | Elsevier Ltd. | |||||
ISSN | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||
収録物識別子 | 25425196 | |||||
DOI | ||||||
関連タイプ | isIdenticalTo | |||||
識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||
関連識別子 | 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00152-2 | |||||
権利 | ||||||
権利情報 | © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. | |||||
著者版フラグ | ||||||
出版タイプ | VoR | |||||
出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 | |||||
引用 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | The Lancet Planetary Health, 5(7), pp. e436-e445; 2021 |