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Indian Ocean Dipole and Rainfall Drive a Moran Effect in East Africa Malaria Transmission
http://hdl.handle.net/10069/34691
http://hdl.handle.net/10069/34691f8f676a5-9679-4fbb-9d66-c7a38dbd7792
名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
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JID205_1885.pdf (670.2 kB)
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Item type | 学術雑誌論文 / Journal Article(1) | |||||
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公開日 | 2014-09-08 | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
タイトル | Indian Ocean Dipole and Rainfall Drive a Moran Effect in East Africa Malaria Transmission | |||||
言語 | ||||||
言語 | eng | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Synchrony | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Climate Change | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Indian Ocean Dipole | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Anopheles | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Plasmodium | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Time Series | |||||
資源タイプ | ||||||
資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||
資源タイプ | journal article | |||||
著者 |
Chaves, Luis Fernando
× Chaves, Luis Fernando× Satake, Akiko× Hashizume, Masahiro× Minakawa, Noboru |
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抄録 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
内容記述 | Background. Patterns of concerted fluctuation in populations-synchrony-can reveal impacts of climatic variability on disease dynamics. We examined whether malaria transmission has been synchronous in an area with a common rainfall regime and sensitive to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a global climatic phenomenon affecting weather patterns in East Africa.Methods.We studied malaria synchrony in 5 15-year long (1984-1999) monthly time series that encompass an altitudinal gradient, approximately 1000 m to 2000 m, along Lake Victoria basin. We quantified the association patterns between rainfall and malaria time series at different altitudes and across the altitudinal gradient encompassed by the study locations.Results.We found a positive seasonal association of rainfall with malaria, which decreased with altitude. By contrast, IOD and interannual rainfall impacts on interannual disease cycles increased with altitude. Our analysis revealed a nondecaying synchrony of similar magnitude in both malaria and rainfall, as expected under a Moran effect, supporting a role for climatic variability on malaria epidemic frequency, which might reflect rainfall-mediated changes in mosquito abundance.Conclusions.Synchronous malaria epidemics call for the integration of knowledge on the forcing of malaria transmission by environmental variability to develop robust malaria control and elimination programs. | |||||
書誌情報 |
The Journal of Infectious Diseases 巻 205, 号 12, p. 1885-1891, 発行日 2012-06-15 |
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出版者 | ||||||
出版者 | Oxford University Press | |||||
ISSN | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||
収録物識別子 | 00221899 | |||||
EISSN | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||
収録物識別子 | 15376613 | |||||
DOI | ||||||
関連タイプ | isVersionOf | |||||
識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||
関連識別子 | 10.1093/infdis/jis289 | |||||
権利 | ||||||
権利情報 | c The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. | |||||
権利 | ||||||
権利情報 | This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in The Journal of Infectious Diseases following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 205(12), pp.1885-1891; 2012 is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jis289 | |||||
著者版フラグ | ||||||
出版タイプ | AM | |||||
出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa | |||||
引用 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 205(12), pp.1885-1891; 2012 |