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アイテム
Impact of COVID-19 vaccination by implementation timing and coverage rate in relation to misinformation prevalence in Japan
http://hdl.handle.net/10069/0002002373
http://hdl.handle.net/10069/00020023730df6a734-ae96-40e0-8a53-564ed56c1148
| 名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
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V59_127273.pdf (3.3 MB)
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| アイテムタイプ | 学術雑誌論文 / Journal Article(1) | |||||||||
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| 公開日 | 2025-05-29 | |||||||||
| タイトル | ||||||||||
| タイトル | Impact of COVID-19 vaccination by implementation timing and coverage rate in relation to misinformation prevalence in Japan | |||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 言語 | ||||||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||
| 主題 | COVID-19 | |||||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||
| 主題 | Vaccination | |||||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||
| 主題 | Vaccine hesitancy | |||||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||
| 主題 | Misinformation | |||||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||
| 主題 | Mathematical model | |||||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||
| 主題 | Counterfactual scenario simulation | |||||||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||||||
| 資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||||||
| 資源タイプ | journal article | |||||||||
| 著者 |
Furuse, Yuki
× Furuse, Yuki
× Tabuchi, Takahiro
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| 抄録 | ||||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||||||
| 内容記述 | COVID-19 vaccines have saved many lives during the pandemic. However, the implementation strategy of vaccination in some countries may not have been ideal. In this study, we investigated the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 mortality in counterfactual scenarios for different vaccine implementation timings and coverage in Japan. To do so, we developed a mathematical model to predict the number of COVID-19 deaths using weekly data on COVID-19 cases, vaccination coverage, vaccine effectiveness, and the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 variants. We also reanalyzed survey data from our previous study about the prevalence of misinformation beliefs and attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccination, in order to build counterfactual scenarios in which we had managed misinformation better or worse. In Japan, the COVID-19 death toll was 14,994 in 2021 before the emergence of the Omicron variant in December. Counterfactual scenario simulations using the mathematical model revealed that 30,117 deaths were averted by vaccination in 2021, considering the direct and indirect effects of vaccines. If we had failed to manage the influence of misinformation, vaccination coverage would have dropped from 83.4 % to 76.6 %. And there would have been 1020 more deaths. The death toll could have decreased by 431 in a scenario for better misinformation management, assuming vaccination coverage of 88.0 %. Three-month delayed vaccination implementation would have increased the death toll by 22,216, whereas three-month early implementation would have averted 7003 deaths. Therefore, implementation timing had a stronger effect than vaccination coverage. This study highlights the importance of assessing vaccination strategies from the perspective of misinformation management and timing to start vaccination rollout. | |||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 書誌情報 |
en : Vaccine 巻 59, p. art. no. 127273, 発行日 2025-05-20 |
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| 出版者 | ||||||||||
| 出版者 | Elsevier Ltd | |||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| ISSN | ||||||||||
| 収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||||||
| 収録物識別子 | 0264410X | |||||||||
| DOI | ||||||||||
| 関連タイプ | isIdenticalTo | |||||||||
| 識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||||||
| 関連識別子 | 10.1016/j.vaccine.2025.127273 | |||||||||
| 権利 | ||||||||||
| 権利情報 | © 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). | |||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 著者版フラグ | ||||||||||
| 出版タイプ | VoR | |||||||||
| 出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 | |||||||||
| 引用 | ||||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||||||
| 内容記述 | Vaccine, 59, art. no. 127273; 2025 | |||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
