| アイテムタイプ |
学術雑誌論文 / Journal Article(1) |
| 公開日 |
2025-07-01 |
| タイトル |
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|
タイトル |
Projected compound effects of population aging and climate warming on emergency ambulance demand in Japan |
|
言語 |
en |
| 言語 |
|
|
言語 |
eng |
| キーワード |
|
|
言語 |
en |
|
主題Scheme |
Other |
|
主題 |
Emergency ambulance dispatch |
| キーワード |
|
|
言語 |
en |
|
主題Scheme |
Other |
|
主題 |
Aging |
| キーワード |
|
|
言語 |
en |
|
主題Scheme |
Other |
|
主題 |
Climate change |
| キーワード |
|
|
言語 |
en |
|
主題Scheme |
Other |
|
主題 |
Seasonality |
| 資源タイプ |
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|
資源タイプ識別子 |
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
|
資源タイプ |
journal article |
| 著者 |
Madaniyazi, Lina
Oka, Kazutaka
Honda,Yasushi
Hashizume, Masahiro
|
| 抄録 |
|
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内容記述タイプ |
Abstract |
|
内容記述 |
Background: The emergency medical services system, including emergency ambulance dispatch (EAD), faces significant challenges due to a rapidly aging population and climate change. Notably, despite the warming climate, it remains unclear whether the high EAD incidence in winter will persist. This study projects the compound impact of these factors on future seasonal demands of EAD in Japan. Methods: We analyzed 26,595,933 all-cause EAD cases among older adults in Japan in 2011–2019 and projected EAD incidence in 2011–99 under climate-population scenarios. We compared EAD incidence and its seasonality between 2011 and 2019 and future decades. Peak-to-trough ratio (PTR) and attributable fraction (AF) were used to measure the amplitude and burden of seasonality. Results: Until mid-century, annual incidence cases are projected to rise by 15 %, followed by a decline afterwards. The annual incidence rate is expected to increase by 2.95 % to 4.25 % by the 2090s under various scenarios. Importantly, the high-incidence peak is projected to shift from cold to warm season, while high incidence in cold season persists. PTR and AF are projected to increase, with more profound changes under extreme climate scenario. Conclusion: Demand for emergency medical services among older adults is expected to rise, especially until mid-century, with high demand in both summer and winter. Adaptive strategies are needed to manage increasing emergency service demands and shifts in seasonal patterns. |
|
言語 |
en |
| 書誌情報 |
en : Environment International
巻 202,
p. art. no. 109619,
発行日 2025-06-21
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| 出版者 |
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|
出版者 |
Elsevier Ltd |
|
言語 |
en |
| ISSN |
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|
収録物識別子タイプ |
ISSN |
|
収録物識別子 |
01604120 |
| DOI |
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|
関連タイプ |
isIdenticalTo |
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|
識別子タイプ |
DOI |
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|
関連識別子 |
10.1016/j.envint.2025.109619 |
| 権利 |
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|
権利情報 |
© 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/bync/4.0/). |
|
言語 |
en |
| 著者版フラグ |
|
|
出版タイプ |
VoR |
|
出版タイプResource |
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 |
| 引用 |
|
|
内容記述タイプ |
Other |
|
内容記述 |
Environment International, 202, art. no. 109619; 2025 |
|
言語 |
en |
EI202_109619.pdf (1.1 MB)
