| アイテムタイプ |
学術雑誌論文 / Journal Article(1) |
| 公開日 |
2025-10-14 |
| タイトル |
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タイトル |
Global, regional and national burden of chikungunya: force of infection mapping and spatial modelling study |
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言語 |
en |
| 言語 |
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言語 |
eng |
| 資源タイプ |
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資源タイプ識別子 |
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
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資源タイプ |
journal article |
| 著者 |
Kang, Hyolim
Lim, Ahyoung
Auzenbergs, Megan
Clark, Andrew
Colón-González, Felipe J
Salje, Henrik
Clapham, Hannah
Carrera, Jean Paul
Kim, Jong-Hoon
Malarski, Maya
López-Vergès, Sandra
Cucunubá, Zulma M
Cerqueira-Silva, Thiago
Edmunds, William John
Sahastrabuddhe, Sushant
Brady, Oliver J
Abbas, Kaja
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| 抄録 |
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内容記述タイプ |
Abstract |
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内容記述 |
Introduction: Chikungunya virus, an arbovirus transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, causes epidemics in tropical regions with potential risk in higher latitudes. Our aim is to estimate the global, regional and national burden of chikungunya across affected and environmentally suitable at-risk regions. Methods: We used a random forest model to predict force of infection and estimate chikungunya burden at high spatial resolution (5×5 km) using covariates from climatic, socioeconomic and ecological domains. We used a focal scenario to estimate the observed burden (lower bound) and an at-risk scenario to estimate the potential burden (upper bound) of chikungunya transmission. Results: We predicted global long-term average annual force of infection at 0.012 (95% UI: 0.007 to 0.019) for focal scenario and 0.013 (95% UI: 0.005 to 0.03) for at-risk scenario in 103 countries. We estimated global chikungunya burden annually of 14.4 million (95% UI: 11.0 to 17.8 million) infections and 0.96 million (95% UI: 0.56 to 1.6 million) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the focal scenario, and 34.9 million infections (95% UI: 26.7 to 43.1 million) and 2.3 million DALYs (95% UI: 1.4 to 3.8 million) in the at-risk scenario for 2020. The chronic phase accounts for 54% of chikungunya burden, with relatively higher burden among 40–60-year-old population, with mortality disproportionately affecting children under 10 and adults over 80. Conclusion: While chikungunya transmission has high geographical uncertainty, high force of infection is not limited to tropical regions and is distributed across all continents. Our estimates of chikungunya burden are useful for prioritisation of regions and target age groups for chikungunya vaccine introduction. |
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言語 |
en |
| 書誌情報 |
en : BMJ Global Health
巻 10,
号 10,
p. art. no. e018598,
発行日 2025-10-01
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| 出版者 |
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出版者 |
BMJ Publishing Group Ltd |
|
言語 |
en |
| ISSN |
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収録物識別子タイプ |
EISSN |
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収録物識別子 |
2059-7908 |
| DOI |
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関連タイプ |
isIdenticalTo |
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識別子タイプ |
DOI |
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関連識別子 |
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2024-018598 |
| 権利 |
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権利情報 |
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2025. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ Group. |
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言語 |
en |
| 著者版フラグ |
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|
出版タイプ |
VoR |
|
出版タイプResource |
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 |
| 引用 |
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内容記述タイプ |
Other |
|
内容記述 |
BMJ Global Health, 10 (10), art. no. e018598 |
|
言語 |
en |
BMJGH10_e018598.pdf (2 MB)
