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Predicting West Nile Virus Infection Risk From the Synergistic Effects of Rainfall and Temperature
http://hdl.handle.net/10069/36533
http://hdl.handle.net/10069/36533b6b025be-68d1-4460-83f7-358fe016fdf2
名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
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JME_tjw042.pdf (2.3 MB)
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Item type | 学術雑誌論文 / Journal Article(1) | |||||
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公開日 | 2017-04-26 | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
タイトル | Predicting West Nile Virus Infection Risk From the Synergistic Effects of Rainfall and Temperature | |||||
言語 | ||||||
言語 | eng | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | West Nile virus | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | climate and weather | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | risk model | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Illinois | |||||
資源タイプ | ||||||
資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||
資源タイプ | journal article | |||||
著者 |
Shand, Lindsay
× Shand, Lindsay× Brown, William M.× Chaves, Luis Fernando× Goldberg, Tony L.× Hamer, Gabriel L.× Haramis, Linn× Kitron, Uriel× Walker, Edward D.× Ruiz, Marilyn O. |
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抄録 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
内容記述 | Mosquito-based surveillance is a practical way to estimate the risk of transmission of West Nile virus (WNV) to people. Variations in temperature and precipitation play a role in driving mosquito infection rates and transmission of WNV, motivating efforts to predict infection rates based on prior weather conditions. Weather conditions and sequential patterns of meteorological events can have particularly important, but regionally distinctive, consequences for WNV transmission, with high temperatures and low precipitation often increasing WNV mosquito infection. Predictive models that incorporate weather can thus be used to provide early indications of the risk of WNV infection. The purpose of this study was first, to assess the ability of a previously published model of WNV mosquito infection to predict infection for an area within the region for which it was developed, and second, to improve the predictive ability of this model by incorporating new weather factors that may affect mosquito development. The legacy model captured the primary trends in mosquito infection, but it was improved considerably when calibrated with local mosquito infection rates. The use of interaction terms between precipitation and temperature improved model performance. Specifically, temperature had a stronger influence than rainfall, so that lower than average temperature greatly reduced the effect of low rainfall on increased infection rates. When rainfall was lower, high temperature had an even stronger positive impact on infection rates. The final model is practical, stable, and operationally valid for predicting West Nile virus infection rates in future weeks when calibrated with local data. |
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書誌情報 |
Journal of Medical Entomology 巻 53, 号 4, p. 935-944, 発行日 2016-04-25 |
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出版者 | ||||||
出版者 | Entomological Society of America | |||||
ISSN | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||
収録物識別子 | 00222585 | |||||
EISSN | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||
収録物識別子 | 19382928 | |||||
DOI | ||||||
関連タイプ | isVersionOf | |||||
識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||
関連識別子 | 10.1093/jme/tjw042 | |||||
権利 | ||||||
権利情報 | c The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. | |||||
権利 | ||||||
権利情報 | This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Journal of Medical Entomology following peer review. The version of record Journal of Medical Entomology, Article in Press; 2016 is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jme/tjw042 | |||||
著者版フラグ | ||||||
出版タイプ | AM | |||||
出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa | |||||
引用 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | Journal of Medical Entomology, 53(4), pp.935-944; 2016 |